EXPRESS METHOD OF ESTIMATION OF THE POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL RISK IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS ON TRANSPORT

M. M. Biliaiev, L. Ya. Muntian

Abstract


Purpose. The present research is aimed to the development of a method to assess the potential territorial risk in accidents on the railways, which takes into account the specificity of the chemically hazardous substances emission in emergency situations during their transportation. Methodology. The basis of the proposed method is numerical modeling of the transfer process is chemically dangerous substances in the atmosphere. The basis of the numerical model is the equation of convective-diffusion transfer of chemically hazardous substances. This equation takes into account the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances due to wind and atmospheric diffusion. For the numerical integration of the equations of transfer of chemically hazardous substances in the atmosphere is applied an implicit finite-difference scheme of splitting. Based on the constructed numerical model was developed method for the assessment of potential territorial risk and generated code in algorithmic language Fortran. The developed method of spatio-temporal risk assessment takes into account: the territorial probable weather situations; emission mode of chemically hazardous substances; emission power; the movement of the source of emission. A computational experiment to assess the level of air pollution above the village Sinelnikovo during the emergency leak of ammonia was conducted. Findings. The proposed method allows calculating quicklythe potential risk of the leakage of chemically hazardous substances on the basis of the calculation of the level of pollution in different meteosituation. The method allows determining the size of the zone of toxic casualties and assessing the level of risk of accidents in railway transport. Using the developed numerical model evaluated the assessment of risk of casualties in the residential area of the village Sinelnikovo. Originality. The scientists established the method for the assessment of potential territorial risk, based on the numerical modeling of air pollution. The calculation of potential risk to residential areas of the village Sinelnikovo was executed. Practical value. The developed method of assessing risk potential can be used not only for solving problems of this class to objects of railway transport but also for other chemically dangerous objects. By using the developed method was evaluated potential risk to the village Sinelnikovo in the event of accidental emission of ammonia.


Keywords


accidental pollution of the atmosphere; the emission of chemically hazardous substances; numerical simulation; risk assessment

References


Kotlyarevskiy V.A., Zabegayev A.V. Avariya i katastrofy. Preduprezhdeniye i likvidatsiya posledstviy. Uchebnoye posobiye v 5-ti knigakh [Accident and disasters. Warning and liquidation of consequences. Manual in 5 books]. Мoscow, ACB Publ., 2001, book 5. 416 p

Belyaev N.N., Gunko Ye.Yu., Mashikhina P.B. Matematicheskoye modelirovaniye v zadachakh ekologicheskoy bezopasnosti i monitoringa chrezvychaynykh situatsiy [Mathematical modeling in problems of environmental safety and monitoring emergencies]. Dnepropetrovsk, Aktsent PP Publ., 2013, 159 p.

Belyayev N.N., Berlov A.V. Prognozirovaniye zagryazneniya prizemnogo sloya atmosfery pri gorenii tverdogo raketnogo topliva v khranilishche [Prediction of pollution in the atmospheric surface layer during combustion of solid rocket fuel in storage]. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho universytetu [Proc of National Mining University]. Dnipropetrovsk, Natsionalnyi Hirnychyi Universytet Publ., 2013, no. 42, pp. 160-167.

Berlov A.V. Raschet zagryazneniya prizemnogo sloya atmosfery pri gorenii tverdogo raketnogo topliva [Calculation of the pollution of the ground atmospheric layer during combustion of solid rocket fuel]. Naukovyi visnyk budivnytstva: zbirnyk naukovykh prats [Scientific Bulletin of Construction: Proc.], 2014, no. 1 (75), pp.185-189.

Berlyand M.Ye. Prognoz i regulirovaniye zagryazneniya atmosfery [Prediction and regulation of air pollution]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1985. 273 p.

Gusev N.G., Belyaev V.A. Radioaktivnyye vybrosy v biosfere [Radioactive emissions in the biosphere]. Moscow, Energoatomizdat Publ., 1991. 257 p.

Marchuk G.I. Matematicheskoye modelirovaniye v probleme okruzhayushchey sredy [Mathematical modeling in the environmental problem]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1982. 320 p.

Mashikhina P.B. Modelirovaniye rasprostraneniya primesi v atmosfere s uchetom relefa mestnosti [The distribution modeling of impurities in the atmosphere taking into account of terrain]. Visnyk Dnipropetrovskoho natsionalnoho universytetu zaliznychnoho transportu imeni akademika V. Lazariana [Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk National University of Railway Transport named after Academician V. Lazaryan], 2009, issue 27, pp. 138-142.

Metodyka vyznachennia ryzykiv ta yikh pryiniatnykh rivniv dlia deklaruvannia bezpeky obiektiv pid-vyshchenoi nebezpeky [Risks definition technique and their acceptable levels for the declaration of security high-risk facilities]. Kyiv, 2002. 25 p.

Metodyka prohnozuvannia naslidkiv vylyvu (vykydu) nebezpechnykh khimichnykh rechovyn pry avariiakh na promyslovykh obiektakh i transporti [Methods of prediction the consequences of the spout (emission) of hazardous chemicals in accidents at industrial objects and transport]. Kyiv, 2001. 33 p.

Rudakov D.V. Model rasseivaniya primesi v prizemnom sloye atmosfery nad poverkhnostyu so slozhnym relefom [Model of impurity dispersion in the atmospheric surface layer over a surface with complex relief]. Visnyk Dnipropetrovskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia: Mekhanika. Vypusk 8 [Bulletin of Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University. Series: Mechanics. Volume 8], 2004, no. 6, vol 1. pp. 89-97.

Svetlichnaya S.D. Otsenka poluchennoy toksodozy pri rasprostranenii pervichnogo oblaka toksicheskogo veshchestva [Evaluation of the toxic dose received at the distribution of the primary cloud of toxic substances]. Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii: zbirnyk naukovykh prats [ Problems of emergency situations: Proc.], 2011, issue 13, pp. 127-132.

Zgurovskiy M.Z., Skopetskiy V.V., Khrushch V.K., Belyaev N.N. Chislennoye modelirovaniye rasprostraneniya zagryazneniya v okruzhayushchey srede [Numerical modelling of pollution spreading in the environment]. Kyiv,Naukova dumka Publ., 1997. 368 p.

Shvyryayev A.A., Menshikov V.V. Otsenka riska vozdeystviya zagryazneniya atmosfery v issleduyemom regione [Risk assessment of pollution in the research area]. Moscow, Izdatelstvo MGU Publ., 2004. 124 p.

Biliaiev N.N., Berlov A.V. Expert system to predict the atmosphere pollution in the case of the accident at the solid rocket propellant storage. Stroitelstvo, materialovedeniye, mashinostroeniye: sbornik nauchnykh trudov [Construction, Material science, Mechanical Engineering: Proc.]. Dnepropetrovsk, 2014, issue 76, pp. 57-61.

Biliaiev M. Numerical Simulation of Indoor Air Pollution and Atmosphere Pollution for Regions Having Complex Topography. Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXI. Netherlands, Springer Publ., 2012. pp. 87-91.

Schutz M., Cohen M., Whalen T., Taylor T. Maximum Possible Risk Modelling. Proc. of the 11th Joint Conf. on Information Sciences. Netherlands, Atlantis Press Publ., 2008, pp. 1-6. doi: 10.2991/jcis.2008.15.


GOST Style Citations


  1. Авария и катастрофы. Предупреждение и ликвидация последствий : учебн. пособие в 5-ти книгах / Под ред. В. А. Котляревского, А. В. Забегаева. – Москва : ACB, 2001. – Кн. 5. – 416 с.
  2. Беляев, Н. Н. Математическое моделирование в задачах экологической безопасности и мониторинга чрезвычайных ситуаций : монография / Н. Н. Беляев, Е. Ю. Гунько, П. Б. Машихина. – Днепропетровск : Акцент ПП, 2013. – 159 с.
  3. Беляев, Н. Н. Прогнозирование загрязнения приземного слоя атмосферы при горении твердого ракетного топлива в хранилище / Н. Н. Беляев, А. В. Берлов // Зб. наук. пр. НГУ. – Дніпропетровськ, 2013. – № 42. – С. 160–167.
  4. Берлов, А.В.Расчет загрязнения приземного слоя атмосферы при горении твердого ракетного топлива / А.В. Берлов // Наук. вісн. буд-ва : зб. наук. пр. / Харк. нац. ун-т буд-ва та архіт. – Харків, 2014. – № 1 (75). – С. 185–189.
  5. Берлянд, М. Е. Прогноз и регулирование загрязнения атмосферы / М. Е. Берлянд. – Ленинград : Гидрометеоиздат, 1985. – 273 с.
  6. Гусев, Н. Г. Радиоактивные выбросы в биосфере / Н. Г. Гусев, В. А. Беляев. – Москва : Энергоатомиздат, 1991. – 257 с.
  7. Марчук, Г. И. Математическое моделирование в проблеме окружающей среды / Г. И. Марчук. – Москва : Наука, 1982. – 320 с.
  8. Машихина, П. Б. Моделирование распространения примеси в атмосфере с учетом рельефа местности / П. Б. Машихина // Вісн. Дніпропетр. нац. ун-ту залізн. трансп. ім. акад. В. Лазаряна. – Дніпропетровськ, 2009. – Вип. 27. – С. 138–142.
  9. Методика визначення ризиків та їх прийнятних рівнів для декларування безпеки об'єктів підвищеної небезпеки: затв. наказом № 637 від 04.12.2002. – Київ, 2002. –25 с.
  10. Методика прогнозування наслідків виливу (викиду) небезпечних хімічних речовин при аваріях на промислових об'єктах i транспорті : затв. наказом № 73/82/64/122 від 27.03.2001. – Київ, 2001. – 33 с.
  11. Рудаков, Д. В. Модель рассеивания примеси в приземном слое атмосферы над поверхностью со сложным рельефом / Д. В. Рудаков // Вісник ДНУ. Серія : Механіка. – Дніпропетровськ, 2004. – № 6. – Вип. 8, т. 1. – С. 89–97.
  12. Светличная, С. Д. Оценка полученной токсодозы при распространении первичного облака токсического вещества / С. Д. Светличная // Проблеми надзвичайних ситуацій : зб. наук. пр. / Нац. ун-т цив. захисту України. – Харків, 2011. – Вип. 13. – С. 127–132.
  13. Численное моделирование распространения загрязнения в окружающей среде / М. З. Згуровский, В. В. Скопецкий, В. К. Хрущ, Н. Н. Беляев. – Київ : Наук. думка, 1997. – 368 с.
  14. Швыряев, А. А. Оценка риска воздействия загрязнения атмосферы в исследуемом регионе / А. А. Швыряев, В. В. Меньшиков. – Москва : Изд-во МГУ, 2004. – 124 с.
  15. Biliaiev, N. N. Expert system to predict the atmosphere pollution inthecase of the accident at the solid rocket propellant storage / N. N. Biliaiev, A. V. Berlov // Стр-во, материаловедение, машиностроение : сб. науч. тр. / Приднепров. гос. акад. стр-ва и архит. – Днепропетровск, 2014. – Вып. 76. – С. 57–61.
  16. Biliaiev, M. Numerical Simulation of Indoor Air Pollution and Atmosphere Pollution for Regions Having Complex Topography / M. Biliaiev // Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXI. – Netherlands : Springer, 2012. – P.87–91.
  17. Maximum Possible Risk Modelling / M.Schutz, M. Cohen, T. Whalen, T. Taylor // Proc. of the 11th Joint Conf. on Information Sciences. – Netherlands : Atlantis Press, 2008. – P. 1–6. doi: 10.2991/jcis.2008.15.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.15802/stp2016/60945

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

 

ISSN 2307–3489 (Print)
ІSSN 2307–6666 (Online)